Predicting (hate that word) what the Academy will choose is risky business. But those of us who follow cinema closely can’t help ourselves.

The Academy is all about proclamation. Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Sound, etc. But can there really be a Best of anything in art? The full Academy chooses the Best by voting on nominations that are elected by members who vote only within their specific proficiency. Only directors can nominate directors, only editors can nominate editors, and so on. This first cut is the most meaningful. it’s peer to peer, craft to craft recognition. That lens gives us a slate of films to sink our teeth into. They’re saying if you want to see high quality craft and performance, “Start here.” That’s really all we should need.

By producing an annual show and announcing a Best, the Academy brings awareness and support to motion picture art. It’s more than just prestige. Nominees and winers can realize substantial monetary gain and an opportunity to have input, even control over what comes next. The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences is analogous to an organized professional sports league. Competition is structured to bring innovation and premium work. Yes the Oscars show is the butt of jokes and complaints, but without the Academy we might devolve into a diminished truly American art form.

What Oppenheimer WILL Win

Oppenheimer will take home the Oscar in these categories; Picture, Directing, Actor, Supporting Actor, Cinematography, Editing, Score and Adapted Screenplay. It’s easy to watch this film and think it’s just another movie. It is not just another movie. It is a true story. It really happened. The most important history lesson we can’t be sure our species has fully learned. Mr. Nolan has done us all a great favor by offering yet another opportunity to process the lessons of fission and fusion; a chance to put down our nuclear pencils. It is a work on celluloid that stands apart from cinema. The Doomsday Clock was established in 1947 and is now set at 90 seconds to midnight.

What Oppenheimer will NOT Win

I’m predicting Oppenheimer will not win in these categories; Supporting Actress, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound and Production Design. That would be 8 Oscar wins out of 13 nominations for Christopher Nolan and team.

Supporting Actress is a race between Daniele Brooks (The Color Purple) and Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers). I’m not taking anything away from Ms. Brooks, but she is in a remake (an amazing one at that) which might make Academy members have second thoughts. Ms. Joy Randolph is in new look at familiar issues filmed as a comedy/drama and just might connect with Academy voters.

Costume Design and Production Design will go to Poor Things. Shona Heath and James Price in collaboration with Yorgos Lanthimos created a fisheye world the size of a whale. There is more to see in each shot than most pictures display in their entire runtime. The otherworldly costumes created by Holly Waddington match with the fascinating visuals of the production design perfectly.

Makeup and Hairstyling is the lone Oscar Bradley Cooper’s Maestro will win. Fifty-nine professionals worked on the costume team and 120 names are listed in the makeup department. Yikes! Mr. Cooper has now made two films at a very high level (A Star is Born) and in any other year Maestro might fare much better. I think there is more in that film than many people give it credit for, but it doesn’t have the broad cultural or historical relevance of Barbie, or Killers of the Flower Moon. It’s also worth asking if the Academy can actually handle two bio-pics in one year? I think not.

Being an audiophile, Sound is dear to my heart. When I see a film that catches my ear, I put it to the test. I queue up the movie, put on my headphones and go into the other room. I listen to the film without watching it. My ears no longer have to share the experience with my eyes. Since I have seen the film before my brain conjures up visual memories, but the sound is the hero. The Zone of Interest sound design and execution elevates the cinematic experience to a level equal to and perhaps even great than the script and the cinematography. What is heard by us and the characters in the film is quilted together in a tragic tapestry of everyday life and everyday death. If we think of Sound as a stand alone category, and the Academy does, The Zone of Interest rises above all other nominees.

Side Notes

Although I believe Ludwig Göransson’s Score for Oppenheimer should win, I am conflicted. A long time collaborator of Martin Scorsese was musician Robbie Robertson who wrote the score for Killers of the Flower Moon. If you are of a certain vintage you know Mr. Robertson was one of the founders of the rock group The Band. He worked on eight films with Scorsese. Mr. Robertson’s mother was Cayuga and Mohawk and Robbie spent time on the Six Nations Reservation. His score for Killers of the Flower Moon is immersive, mystical, ceremonial and highly personal. I hope I’m wrong and the Academy gives him the Oscar Posthumously.

Actor in a Leading Role: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Actor in a Supporting Role: Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer

Actress in a Leading Role: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Actress in a Supporting Role: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Animated Feature Film: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Cinematography: Oppenheimer

Costume Design: Poor Things

Directing: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Documentary Feature: 20 Days in Mariupol

Documentary Short Subject: The Last Repair Shop

Film Editing: Oppenheimer

International Feature Film: The Zone of Interest

Makeup and Hairstyling: Maestro

Original Score: Oppenheimer

Original Song: “What Was I Made For?” Billie Eilish, Barbie

Best Picture: Oppenheimer

Production Design: Poor Things

Animated Short Film: WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko

Live Action Short Film: The After

Sound: The Zone of Interest

Visual Effects: The Creator

Adapted Screenplay: Oppenheimer

Original Screenplay: Anatomy of a Fall